When Workload Spikes Aren’t About Staffing — They’re
About Human Behaviour
Restaurants tend to be busier after payday. On the day after payday, restaurants experience a significant increase in spending, with a notable rise in customer traffic. Specifically, restaurants see a 25.6% increase in spending the day after payday, indicating that people are indulging in dining out after covering essential expenses. This trend is consistent across various studies and reports, highlighting the financial reality that contributes to increased spending and dining activity.
Recently, I was speaking with a client who was struggling with a familiar problem: unpredictable workload spikes. Their team was overwhelmed at the start and end of every month, phones ringing off the hook, staff stretched thin, and customer frustration rising.
On paper, nothing seemed unusual. The staffing levels were stable. The processes hadn’t changed. Yet every month, like clockwork, the same tidal wave hit.
So we stepped back and looked at their demand profile — not just the numbers, but the story behind the numbers.
And the answer was surprisingly simple.
They sent out all their bills at the start and end of the month.
Customers received them.
Customers had questions.
Customers called.
Customers received them.
Customers had questions.
Customers called.
The spike wasn’t a mystery. It was a perfectly predictable human response.
The tempting solution that wouldn’t have worked
The client had already started brainstorming ideas. One
suggestion was to let customers choose their own billing date. In theory, this
would spread the workload more evenly.
But when we looked at it through the lens of real human
behaviour, the picture changed.
Most people get paid at the end of the month.
Most people budget around that.
Most people want bills to arrive when they actually have money in their account.
Most people budget around that.
Most people want bills to arrive when they actually have money in their account.
So if customers were given the choice, they wouldn’t spread
themselves evenly across the month. They’d cluster — right back at the start
and end.
The spike would remain.
The workload pressure would remain.
And the organisation would still be firefighting.
The workload pressure would remain.
And the organisation would still be firefighting.
Understanding demand means understanding people
This is the heart of demand and capacity modelling:
You’re not just analysing numbers.
You’re analysing behaviour.
You’re not just analysing numbers.
You’re analysing behaviour.
Why do people call?
When do they call?
What triggers the peak?
What constraints shape their choices?
When do they call?
What triggers the peak?
What constraints shape their choices?
Once you understand the “why,” the “what to do about it”
becomes much clearer.
So what can you do?
In this case, the organisation had two realistic options:
1. Accept the spike and design staffing around it
Some peaks are simply part of the landscape. If customer preference drives the pattern, fighting it can cause more harm than good.After all, what’s worse?
A predictable spike in workload
or
Two options emerged:
- A wave of unpaid bills because customers received them at a time they couldn’t afford to pay?
2. If the spike truly must be smoothed, change the trigger
If spreading demand is essential, you need a billing date that customers won’t cluster around.Two options emerged:
- Bill customers on the date they signed up
- Bill customers on their birthday each month
The bigger lesson: Peaks and troughs always have a reason
Workload spikes rarely happen by accident. They’re usually
the result of:
- A process design choice
- A customer behaviour pattern
- A timing trigger
- A financial constraint
- Or a combination of all four
The key is recognising that demand isn’t random. It’s shaped
by human needs, habits, and incentives.
When you understand those drivers, you can design staffing,
shifts, and processes that actually fit the real world — not the theoretical
one.
Helping organisations see the story behind the numbers
This is the work we do every day: helping organisations
understand their demand, redesign their staffing, and create systems that work
for both customers and employees.
If your team is wrestling with workload spikes,
unpredictable demand, or shift patterns that never quite fit, it might be time
to look at the story behind your numbers.
Because once you understand the “why,” the “how” becomes a
whole lot easier.